Here is my pre tournament win probabilities table for 2023 March Madness:
| team | rd_1 | rd_2 | rd_3 | rd_4 | rd_5 | rd_6 | rd_7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 100.0% | 97.2% | 79.3% | 66.6% | 46.3% | 35.1% | 22.0% |
| Alabama | 100.0% | 98.0% | 72.7% | 55.9% | 41.7% | 24.4% | 13.8% |
| UCLA | 100.0% | 97.0% | 77.9% | 53.0% | 34.1% | 20.9% | 13.0% |
| Tennessee | 100.0% | 98.7% | 70.7% | 41.1% | 29.0% | 13.5% | 7.1% |
| Texas | 100.0% | 91.6% | 66.7% | 46.1% | 23.2% | 13.8% | 6.1% |
| Connecticut | 100.0% | 85.9% | 57.7% | 36.9% | 19.9% | 11.2% | 6.0% |
| Purdue | 100.0% | 99.2% | 66.0% | 37.9% | 26.0% | 11.2% | 5.6% |
| Arizona | 100.0% | 89.2% | 69.5% | 42.2% | 19.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% |
| Gonzaga | 100.0% | 91.3% | 66.2% | 31.4% | 16.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% |
| Marquette | 100.0% | 89.7% | 59.6% | 38.3% | 15.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Kansas | 100.0% | 96.1% | 63.1% | 30.0% | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| Xavier | 100.0% | 86.9% | 50.5% | 22.6% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Saint Mary’s | 100.0% | 75.1% | 32.6% | 18.9% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Creighton | 100.0% | 68.2% | 40.9% | 22.2% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Iowa St. | 100.0% | 69.4% | 36.2% | 14.1% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Texas A&M | 100.0% | 60.1% | 22.2% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Baylor | 100.0% | 82.5% | 43.4% | 21.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Kansas St. | 100.0% | 83.7% | 42.5% | 18.6% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| San Diego St. | 100.0% | 73.6% | 48.4% | 19.8% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Indiana | 100.0% | 65.7% | 39.4% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Michigan St. | 100.0% | 50.8% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Kentucky | 100.0% | 57.7% | 31.7% | 15.4% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Memphis | 100.0% | 48.8% | 17.3% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| TCU | 100.0% | 62.0% | 21.9% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Auburn | 100.0% | 54.3% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Florida Atlantic | 100.0% | 51.2% | 16.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Virginia | 100.0% | 72.4% | 34.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| West Virginia | 100.0% | 51.7% | 14.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Duke | 100.0% | 65.5% | 21.4% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| USC | 100.0% | 49.2% | 18.7% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Northwestern | 100.0% | 43.5% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Providence | 100.0% | 42.3% | 22.3% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Arkansas | 100.0% | 56.1% | 21.3% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Miami FL | 100.0% | 58.3% | 26.9% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Missouri | 100.0% | 60.4% | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Boise St. | 100.0% | 56.5% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mississippi St. | 58.7% | 19.6% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Maryland | 100.0% | 48.3% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Illinois | 100.0% | 43.9% | 15.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Penn St. | 100.0% | 39.9% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| N.C. State | 100.0% | 31.8% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Iowa | 100.0% | 45.7% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| VCU | 100.0% | 24.9% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oral Roberts | 100.0% | 34.5% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake | 100.0% | 41.7% | 17.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kent St. | 100.0% | 34.3% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nevada | 58.1% | 24.2% | 6.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Utah Valley | 100.0% | 39.6% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arizona St. | 41.9% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Furman | 100.0% | 27.6% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iona | 100.0% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charleston | 100.0% | 26.4% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colgate | 100.0% | 8.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | 100.0% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh | 41.3% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennesaw St. | 100.0% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grand Canyon | 100.0% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNC Asheville | 100.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Howard | 100.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lafayette | 100.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana St. | 100.0% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 40.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Southern | 59.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UC Santa Barbara | 100.0% | 17.5% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Princeton | 100.0% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M Corpus Chris | 71.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southeast Missouri St. | 28.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Kentucky | 100.0% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Other people’s predictions: